US Market Review 25th June 2021

by Charalambos Constantinides

Peloton Inc. stock recently bottomed on May 6th 2021 on the last earnings date at price $80.50 and since that time it has been rising. The price previously peaked for the year on the 21st of January at $169.00 before bottoming on May 6th. The price penetrated above the 50 Day Moving Average (MA50) on May 26th and on June 22nd it also penetrated the 100 Day Moving Average (MA100) during a bullish rally. The MA50 is crossed below the MA100 but they are both flat indicating a possible weakness in the bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the mid-50 level in bullish area and still below the overbought level of 70, sloping upwards. The price is now trading at around 122.00 above the MA50 and MA100.
For the bulls, important resistance levels exist at $124.89 derived from an April 13th previous top from the last downward move, also at 138.90 derived from January 27th inside support bottom, and finally at 152.13 which is the Fibonacci 161.8% extension target of the last downward move.
For the bears, important support levels exist at $112.50 where the MA100 lies, also at 102.50 where the MA50 coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last move, and finally at 80.47 which is the latest bottom of May 6th.

• Major equity markets on Wall Street closed the trading session on Thursday higher with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 reaching all-time high benchmarks at the closing bell, following United States President Joe Biden's approval of the bipartisan proposal of the American Jobs Plan. "We have an infrastructure deal," he announced. Under the bill, $973 billion will be invested over the course of five years and $1.2 trillion in eight years.
Dow Jones jumped 0.95% with Boeing climbing 2.87%, while the S&P 500 grew 0.58%. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.64% led by Pinduoduo rising by 5.02%.

• Data reports showed that US GDP expanded at a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter and the jobless claims dropped by 7,000 from the previous week. Federal Reserve officials said the recovery has been faster than projected, but it could also cause a further rise in inflation.

• New orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States rose 2.3%, or $5.7 billion, month-on-month in May to $253.3 billion, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. The April figure was revised to $247.6 billion.
Excluding transportation, new orders climbed 0.3% in the same period, while excluding defence, the increase was 1.7%. Transportation equipment led the gains after two consecutive decreases, expanding $5.2 billion or 7.6% to $74.2 billion.

• United States Federal Reserve Board said on Thursday that all 23 large banks have passed its stress tests. "Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has run three stress tests with several different hypothetical recessions and all have confirmed that the banking system is strongly positioned to support the ongoing recovery," Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles noted.
This time, lenders were tested using a hypothetical economic downturn that involved a jump in the unemployment rate to over 10%, a 4% GDP contraction from the fourth quarter of 2020 through the third quarter of 2022, with an equity prices drop of 55%. If such a scenario actually took place, the banks would "collectively lose more than $470 billion," but "their capital ratios would decline to 10.6 percent, still more than double" their risk-based minimum capital requirements, the Fed stated.

Important Daily Events:

• At 12:30 (GMT) US Core PCE Price Index m/m will be announced. This report is a measure of the monthly change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

• At 12:30 (GMT) US Personal Income stats also due. This report is measuring the Change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers.

• At 12:30 (GMT) US Personal Spending stats to be announced. This report is measuring the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers.

• At 14:00 (GMT) US Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Inflation Expectations also coming up. This is a survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.

• At 14:00 (GMT) US Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment coming up. This is a survey that shows the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months.

US Indices yesterday:

• Dow Jones +0.95%
• S&P 500 +0.58%
• Nasdaq +0.64%

Sources: Investing.com, forexfactory.com, breakingthenews.net