European Central Bank (ECB) Interest rate Decision

by John Knobel

EUR/USD Risk / Reward + 155 pips upside; -264 pips downside???

HIGH IMPACT EVENT STARTS  AT 12:45 GMT +1

MAIN EVENT DUE AT 13:30 GMT +1

European investors look for European Central Bank (ECB) signals on stimulus:

  • European Central Bank could be the next major global central bank to open the way for further rate cuts or other measures to support European economies;
  • Due at 12:45 GMT+1 ECB Marginal Lending Rate forecast to remain at 0.25%
  • Due at 12:45 GMT +1 ECB Interest rate Decision forecast to remain unchanged at 0.00%

Traders will pay high attention to the European Central Bank Monetary Policy Statement for clues about the economic conditions that influenced interest rate decision.

Main Event: Due at 13:30 GMT +1: ECB Press Conference   

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) press conference is held monthly, about 45 minutes after the interest rate decision is announced;
  • The press conference is approximately an hour long and has two parts;
  • 1st , a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions;
  • The press conference looks at the factors which affected the ECB's interest rate decision and deals with the overall economic outlook and inflation;
  • Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

High levels of volatility can frequently be observed during the press conference as press questions lead to unscripted answers.

Source: FXGM Economic Calendar

Technical Analysis Commentary:  EUR/USD testing the upper end of a multi-month trading rage (Daily Chart); current price 1.1236; resistance spotted at 1.1315 a break above opens up a potential move towards 1.1375 and 1.1450  (September 2018 to may 2019 low) 38.2 -50% Fibonacci extensions, otherwise a move below the 1.1155 support opens up 1.11 to 1.1030 on the downside.