EU Market Review 6th July 2021

by Charalambos Constantinides

BNP Paribas share hit yearly highs on May 18th 2021 at price 57.92. The price retested that high but failed to reach or penetrate it on June 4th when it traded as high as 57.82. The price action recently penetrated below the 50 Day Moving average(MA50) and last week it traded below the 100 Day Moving average (MA100). The price is now above the MA100 right below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last clear upward move at level 53.60 . The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the mid 50 level in bearish territory, but it is sloping upwards with bullish tendencies.
For the bulls, important resistance points exist at 53.82 or 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, also at 55.25 where the MA50 stands now, and finally at 57.92 derived from the yearly top from May 18th.
For the bears, important support levels exist at 53.00 where the MA100 sits now, also at 49.70 derived from the bottom of the last upward move on April 21st , and finally at 46.21 derived from the inside support top from January 8th .

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic data front. German factory orders and Eurozone retail sales figures will be in focus later today. ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will also influence.
• Major stock markets in Europe finished the first trading session of the week higher with today's economic data in focus.
The FTSE 100 was up 0.58% at the closing bell. The DAX gained 0.08% concurrently. The CAC 40 increased 0.22%.

• Euro zone businesses expanded activity at the fastest rate in 15 years in June as the easing of more coronavirus restrictions brought life back to the bloc's dominant service industry, a survey showed on Monday.
But that surge in growth has come at a cost as inflationary pressures mounted due to labour shortages and disruptions to supply chains caused by the pandemic.
IHS Markit's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of economic health, jumped to 59.5 last month from May's 57.1, its highest level since June 2006.

• The post-lockdown bounce-back for British services firms eased only slightly in June but price pressures jumped by the most on record, adding to signs of a further rise in inflation ahead, a survey showed on Monday.
The IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index for the sector edged down to 62.4 from 62.9 in May but was slightly higher than a preliminary June reading of 61.7.

• The recovery in business activity in Germany's service sector continued in June as coronavirus restrictions eased further, however, the country's services PMI came in slightly below expectations, IHS Markit revealed on Monday.
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose from May's 52.8 to 57.5 in June, the highest level since March 2011.

• The revival of Italy's services sector continued at an accelerated rate, according to the latest PMI® data. Business
activity increased at the quickest rate since January 2018, amid another sharp upturn in client demand, with panellists citing looser COVID-19 restrictions and the subsequent reopening of many companies.
The headline index from the report, the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 56.7 in June, up noticeably from May's reading of 53.1, and signalled a back-to-back increase in services output. Moreover, the rate of growth was the strongest for more than three years and sharp overall.

• Investor morale in the euro zone rose for the fifth month in a row in July, its highest level since February 2018, lifted by reopening restaurants and retailers as well as tourism as coronavirus cases fall, a survey showed on Monday.
Sentix's index for the euro zone climbed to 29.8 from 28.1 in June. A Reuters poll had pointed to a reading of 30.0.
Important Daily Events:
• At 06:00 (GMT) German Factory Orders m/m is due. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders.

• At 08:30 (GMT) UK Construction PMI (PMI) is expected. This is a survey of about 150 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

• At 09:00 (GMT) EU ZEW Economic Sentiment is coming up. This indicator is based on a survey of about 275 German institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone.

• At 09:00 (GMT) German ZEW Economic Sentiment is also expected. It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity.

• At 09:00 (GMT) EU Retail Sales m/m is also due. This indicator is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

European indices Yesterday :

• DAX: +0.08%
• EUROSTOXX 50: +0.07%
• FTSEMIB: +0.63%
• CAC40: +0.22%

Sources: Investing.com, forexfactory.com, breakingthenews.net, markiteconomcs.com, fxempire.com