EU Market Review 29th June 2021

by Charalambos Constantinides

EURJPY reached yearly highs on June 1st hitting a price of 134.11. The price since then dropped all the way down to 130.00 level by June 21st where it found support on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward move. The price since then recovered slightly to the upside and is now trading at around 131.80. The Rate of Change (ROC) is in bearish territory below zero and is relatively flat. The price is below the 50 Day Moving average (MA50) and above the 100 Day moving Average (MA100) in a tight squeeze. The price is also retesting the valid uptrend line which it recently broke downwards and is still trading below it.
For the bulls, important resistance levels at 132.60 where the MA50 and the valid trendline stands, also at 134.11 which is derived from the June 1st high, and finally at 137.50 from a January 2018 top.
For the bears, important support exists at 131.25 where the MA100 coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last move, also at 130.00 which is derived from the June 21st bottom, and finally at 128.25 which is the low of the last upward move seen on 24th March.

There is ample action on the EU Economic Calendar today with stats from the Eurozone and the UK. Stats will include UK Nationwide HPI, EU German Inflation (CPI), Spanish Inflation and UK Money Supply, UK Individual Lending and UK Mortgage Approvals. Comments also expected from ECB President Lagarde and Buba President Weidmann.
Major stock markets in Europe closed lower on Monday as new spikes in infections from COVID-19 retake the center of public attention.
The DAX closed 0.34% lower. The FTSE 100 sank by 0.88%. The CAC 40 dropped by 0.98%.

• As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 11.8% in May 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since October 1981 (+13.6%). In April 2021 and in March 2021 the annual rates of change were +10.3% and +6.9%, respectively. From April 2021 to May 2021 the index rose by 1.7%.

• European Central Bank policymaker Jens Weidmann on Monday backed winding down the ECB's emergency bond purchases in steps before ending them altogether when pandemic-fighting curbs are lifted and the recovery solidly underway.
Among the first ECB policymakers to openly discuss the end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), Weidmann said the scheme should end when "all noteworthy measures to contain the pandemic" have been dropped and that "the economic recovery (is) solid".

• European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta stated on Monday that the risk of second-round inflation effects remains limited.
He noted that the Euro area economy does not seem to be on the path to run "hot," noting that the Eurozone demand will likely be strong enough to test supply constraints.
Important Daily Events:
• At 06:00 (GMT) UK Nationwide Building Society House Prices Index (HPI) change is due. This indicator measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide.

• At 08:30 (GMT) UK M4 Money supply m/m to be publicised. This indicator is measuring the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks.

• At 08:30 (GMT) UK Mortgage Approvals expected. This indicator is measuring the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month.

• At 08:30 (GMT) UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m also expected. This indicator is measuring the change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers.

• At 13:40 (GMT) ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at the Brussels Economic Forum 2021.

• At 16:00 (GMT) EU Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is due to speak at an online event hosted by the Center for Financial Studies.

• All Day Event – EU German Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m expected. Listed as an 'All Day' event because the 'Actual' is comprised of data from 6 German states which report their CPI throughout the day.

European indices Yesterday :

• DAX: -0.34%
• EUROSTOXX 50: -0.75%
• FTSEMIB: -1.11%
• CAC40: -0.98%

Sources: Investing.com, forexfactory.com, destatis.de, breakingthenews.net