EU Market Review 18th June 2021

by Charalambos Constantinides

Gold traded higher than 1900 on Tuesday for a second consecutive week, registering new monthly highs at around 1916.15 area, before dropping below 1900.00. The precious metal hit its highest level in more than four months, as inflation concerns outpaced the expected economic growth. Following June Fed Rate decision and hawkish comments by the Fed officials, the Gold retreated near the 1800 area. The price broke below the Uptrend line on 14th June and is today trading around 1780.00 nearing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward move. The price is already below the both the 50 and 100 Day Moving Averages (MA50/MA100).
The Relative Strength Index is below the mid-50 level in bearish area and also below the 30 level into oversold area pointing downwards indicating bearish tendency.
For the bulls, important resistance levels exist at 1790 area where the MA100 stands now, also at 1808.30 derived from the May 13th bottom, and finally at 1856.00 level derived from the inside resistance bottom of June 4th .
For the bears, support levels exist at 1768.00 level where the 61.8% retracement level of the last move lies, also at 1797.51758.50 derived from the 9th of April inside swing support top, and finally at 1676.00 where the 8th of March double bottom resides.

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• It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic data front. German Purchasing Power Index (PPI), UK Retail Sales, EU Current Account data and UK Consumer Inflation Expectations may give some direction to the EU markets.

• European shares ended a touch lower on Thursday as hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve raised concerns over early policy tightening, with mining stocks falling the most as commodity prices tumbled.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.1% at 459.33, snapping a nine-day gaining streak, after the Fed said it could begin raising interest rates a year earlier than expected.

• Figures published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, showed that the euro area annual inflation rate was 2.0% in May 2021, up from 1.6% in April. A year earlier, the rate was 0.1%.
European Union annual inflation was 2.3% in May 2021, up from 2.0% in April. A year earlier, the rate was0.6%.

• Bank of England's (BoE) Chief Economist Andy Haldane said the United Kingdom's economy is "within a few percent of its pre-COVID level" in an interview for the Spectator published on Thursday. He argued against continued public borrowing as a way to deal with the pandemic.
Haldane also discussed employment in the UK and how it was influenced by the coronavirus crisis and Brexit. According to a study cited by the Guardian, job searches in the UK by EU citizens dropped 36% in May compared to the pre-Brexit 2019 average.

• The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy with a view to ensuring price stability and providing ongoing support to the Swiss economy in its recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It is keeping the SNB policy rate and interest on sight deposits at the SNB at −0.75%, and remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

• At 06:00 (GMT) EU German Purchasing Power Index (PPI) is due. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

• At 06:00 (GMT) UK Retails Sales m/m figures are expected. It's a measure of the Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

• At 08:00 (GMT) EU Current Account data will be released. It's a measure of the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous month.

• At 08:30 (GMT) UK Consumer Inflation Expectations will be announced. This report measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months.

European indices Yesterday:

• DAX: +0.11%
• EURO: +0.15%
• MIB: -0.21%
• CAC: +0.21%

Sources: Investing.com, forexfactory.com, fxempire.com, cnbc.com